{"blyg":"0.4","id":"0qmf4mfv7sz3va4egw9nq0zqzn","kind":"thread","origin":"https://blyg.bricolage.io/","page":"t/0qmf4mfv7sz3va4egw9nq0zqzn/","author":{"name":"Kyle Mathews","url":"https://blyg.bricolage.io/"},"created":"2026-09-29T20:20:23Z","updated":"2026-09-29T20:25:17Z","version":1,"content_md":"![[21yrwrzfpa4fhrm7s7qprcapk8]]\n\nYeah AI reminds me of early internet discourse 90s/2000s where everyone was gung ho about the internet but there'd be this occasional blog post with a dark prophecy about how the internet would destabilize everything ala printing press. Which seemed dark and distant but hey, guess what happened... AI is still in that honeymoon period where it's all fun and games (well for me — obviously a lot of people are freaking out already) but the destabilizing effects are starting to come in, much faster than they did with the internet which needed a whole slew of social media properties to be invented and go mass market. ChatGPT is already at 1B+ so the destabilizing aspects are already hitting an already destabilized society. \n\nAll that being said, I far prefer life w/ the internet than without and AI seems the same but all the same, it'll be a ride for the next few decades as all this plays out.\n","content_html":"
\n

Amara’s Law is that people overestimate a technology in the short term and underestimate it in the long term.

\n

I think AI is radically violating this pattern. What’s happening instead is that in the short term, people are wildly overestimating entirely fictional aspects and utterly wildly underestimating the very real nonfictional things.

\n

As for the long term nobody is actually estimating them at all due to the really bad premature ontologies.

\n

Most people have no idea what’s about to hit them, though some have some sense of how hard it’s going to hit.

\n

They’re using unimaginably lazy answers to the what, so even if they get the order of magnitude right on how hard, it doesn’t help.

\n

“AGI” as an idea is an ontological high crime here.

\n\n
\n

Yeah AI reminds me of early internet discourse 90s/2000s where everyone was gung ho about the internet but there'd be this occasional blog post with a dark prophecy about how the internet would destabilize everything ala printing press. Which seemed dark and distant but hey, guess what happened... AI is still in that honeymoon period where it's all fun and games (well for me — obviously a lot of people are freaking out already) but the destabilizing effects are starting to come in, much faster than they did with the internet which needed a whole slew of social media properties to be invented and go mass market. ChatGPT is already at 1B+ so the destabilizing aspects are already hitting an already destabilized society.

\n

All that being said, I far prefer life w/ the internet than without and AI seems the same but all the same, it'll be a ride for the next few decades as all this plays out.

\n","content_hash":"sha256:45167be7012e36fdc6b07c213afe0f94818e31c8061940cc50136db05636bbe6","media":[],"transclusions":[{"id":"21yrwrzfpa4fhrm7s7qprcapk8","version":1,"origin":"https://venkateshrao.com/blyg/","cited":{"source":"Venkatesh Rao's Blyg","author":"Venkatesh Rao","excerpt":"Amara’s Law is that people overestimate a technology in the short term and under…","url":"https://venkateshrao.com/blyg/f/21yrwrzfpa4fhrm7s7qprcapk8/","retrieved":"2026-09-29T20:25:17Z"}}],"stub_of":{"origin":"https://venkateshrao.com/blyg/","id":"21yrwrzfpa4fhrm7s7qprcapk8","version":1,"cited":{"source":"Venkatesh Rao's Blyg","author":"Venkatesh Rao","excerpt":"Amara’s Law is that people overestimate a technology in the short term and under…","url":"https://venkateshrao.com/blyg/f/21yrwrzfpa4fhrm7s7qprcapk8/","retrieved":"2026-09-29T20:25:17Z"}},"changelog":[{"version":1,"at":"2026-09-29T20:25:17Z","note":null}]}